Hans and I have both started writing regularly about the dramatic changes in the workforce that have taken place over the past few years. Call it what you want – the Great Reset, the Great Resignation, the Workforce Shuffle, the Skilled Workforce Crisis – but something big is happening, something that will affect not only our economy but our entire cultural and social makeup. And I think we’re closer to the beginning than the end.

The latest to weigh in is the Wall Street Journal in a piece called, “The Underside of the ‘Great Resignation’.” This follows an earlier piece of groundbreaking journalism with their article, “A Generation of American Men Give Up on College: ‘I Just Feel Lost’.”

This latest article shares some data on changes in the US workforce from Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute:

“Overall labor-force participation peaked in 2000 at about 67%,” Mr. Eberstadt says, counting everyone 16 and older. “We’re currently about 5 points lower than that.” Population aging is a major cause of the drop, with a greater share of Americans now at retirement age. “But the work rate for prime-age people—25 to 54—has also been going down since the turn of the century.”

The decline started with men, at the same time women entered the workforce en masse. “In 1961, labor-force participation for prime-age men was at 96.9%,” Mr. Eberstadt says. Since then, “the chart looks more or less like a straight line down.” By November 2021, “the seasonally adjusted rate was 88.2%.” Almost 1 in 8 men is sitting out during his best years.

That may not sound huge, but the drop is unprecedented. “Would we think it was a crisis if the work rate fell below the Great Depression level?” Mr. Eberstadt asks. “Well, you can check that box. We’re already there.”

We all knew that the Baby Boomer generation, the largest in history, was going to retire at some point. But I think that employers assumed that there would be a new population to replace them. They’re certainly paying the price for that assumption now: Not only are one in eight working-age men not even interested in actually working, too many of the rest don’t have the knowledge and skills needed to fill essential middle-skill roles.

This is a huge problem for employers, and it’s one with no easy or pain-free solutions. One area of opportunity: Becoming actively engaged in K-12 education. Many employers have done just that, building relationships with CTE programs in particular and schools in general to help students learn about work and careers. But we need many more to step up, and we need to ramp up the kind of support – legislative support, the creation of support organizations, and a cultural expectation – that helps to create a national movement.

Beyond the workforce implications, Mr. Eberstadt notes another troubling development resulting from these people opting out of work:

The personal consequences of mass worklessness may outweigh the economic ones. Beyond the top-line labor numbers, Mr. Eberstadt’s research reveals the dreary lifestyles of a rising number of nonworking Americans

“By and large, nonworking men don’t ‘do’ civil society,” Mr. Eberstadt says. “Their time spent helping in the home, their time spent in worship—a whole range of activities, they just aren’t doing.” His source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American Time Use Survey, which compiles respondents’ self-reported habits.

What is filling idle men’s time? “There’s a lot of staying at home, it seems. And what they report doing is ‘watching.’ They report being in front of screens 2,000 hours a year, like that’s their job.” Women again trail the men, but not by much. In 2019, childless women without jobs said they spent seven hours a day in “leisure,” a category dominated by entertainment.

Workforce issues tend to dominate these discussions in the business world, but it’s worth remembering that we are also citizens and neighbors. The correlation between working and the social contract is an important one: If we’re going to have a strong country, as well as strong industry, this is a topic that needs to be addressed.

 

Brett Pawlowski is Executive Vice President of the National Center for College and Career (NC3T) (www.nc3t.com). NC3T provides planning, coaching, technical assistance, and tools. These strategies help community-based leadership teams plan and implement their college-career pathway systems and strengthen employer connections with education.